Winter heavy precipitation events over Northern Europe modulated by a weaker NAO variability by the end of the 21st century

Abstract We use an ensemble of models participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6) to analyse number days with extreme winter precipitation over Northern Europe and its relationship North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), for historical period 1950–2014 two future 21st-century scenarios. Here we find that Europe, project twice more by end 21st century under high-emission scenario compared period. also a weakening NAO variability second half high greenhouse gas emission period, as well increasing correlation between events index both Models projected decrease across show positive trend Europe. These results highlight role played modulating events.